Flu joining COVID and cold
ACIP's new workgroup targets childhood vaccines
COVID, common cold, and flu data from CDC have been paused during the government shutdown, but plotting the data available up to late September as in Figure 1A (derived with data from National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System) shows where we’re at:
• COVID’s gradual moderate summer surge receding after more than 3 months
• the common cold climbing in its late-summer-fall surge
• flu flatlining before its fall-spring surge
(Tap on Figure in e-mail edition for full display. Also tap on points to show data.)
To see where these three respiratory diseases could go this fall and winter, Figure 1B (derived with NREVSS data) shows their course last 2024-2025 season.
• COVID surges again after Thanksgiving and peaks in early January
• common cold takes another 3+ months to drop before starting its spring surge. There’s no vaccine for rhinovirus and with its two broad surges, the cold is essentially year-round.
• flu season is starting, already causing the first death, an adult in North Carolina (NC Department of Health and Human Services). It won’t peak for another 3+ months in February
See below for report on last season’s record pediatric flu deaths.
Measles case total is now 1575 in 42 states and DC (Johns Hopkins). TX, NM, and KS total 993, but no longer provide weekly updates because they consider their original outbreak to be over. However, AZ and UT are sharing an outbreak with 63 and 55 cases, respectively (AZ Department of Health Services, UT Department of Health and Human Services)
Neighbors Canada and Mexico have 5024 cases with 2 deaths and 4879 with 22 deaths, respectively (Johns Hopkins). In 2 weeks, Canada is losing the eliminated-measles status it achieved in 1998, because it will likely be 12 months with domestic infections (CBC).
Vaccines
• 280 pediatric flu deaths last season highest since the 288 in the 2009-2010 H1N1 swine flu pandemic (CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report). There was just one during the 2020-2021 COVID pandemic, but there has been a steady increase since that pandemic, with 210 in 2023-2024.
Last year with 38,000 deaths was considered the highest high-severity flu season for all ages since 2017-2018.
With this flu season about to start its climb to a peak in mid-winter, when it could be a bigger problem than COVID and the cold (Figure 1B), the recommendation is to get vaccinated now. Historically, 80% of pediatric flu deaths in jab-eligible kids 6 months+ have been unvaccinated. In 2024-2025, that was ~90%.
This past season saw 3.8 kids/million under 18 years of age, or ~1/250 k, die from flu. Those under 5 accounted for 39% of the deaths, with 61% kids 5 to 17. Girls made up 58% and 53% of the boys and girls had known medical conditions. The most deaths, 28, occurred in the two weeks ending February 15 following the peak in infections.
Noise to signal
✓ The report above on flu deaths was published in MMWR, CDC’s influential journal that has been relied on worldwide for information and recommendations on diseases and their prevention and treatment. It’s an actual global gold-standard resource. On Friday, most of the staff were fired as part of the White House’s plan for mass terminations during the government shutdown (STAT News). Then on Saturday, the MMWR staff was unfired (New York Times). We just report it; we don’t know the thinking, if any, behind it.
✓ On Thursday, CDC’s aka Kennedy’s ACIP advisors posted an announcement on the agency website of the formation of the Childhood and Adolescent Immunization Schedule Workgroup. It will look over the timing, concurrent administration, and ingredients of vaccines for kids.
ACIP workgroups are not new. They do the behind-the-scenes research on the topics the committee discusses in public to make vaccine recommendations to CDC. The groups are normally composed of experts that include CDC staff scientists and outside organizations such as American Academy of Pediatrics, AMA, and many others. However, in August, the participation of these outside experts was terminated. Now the newest workgroup will also not include CDC experts as members.
Here’s where it gets weirder. The document forming the childhood vaccines workgroup has a section on its administration that addresses CDC involvement. ACIP will monitor its interaction with CDC staff scientists to ensure CDC does not have “undue influence.” (https://www.cdc.gov/acip/downloads/child-schedule-tor-508.pdf).
In June, ACIP banned flu vaccines containing thimerosal preservative in multidose vials without credible evidence for safety concerns. In September, they banned the use of the MMRV combo jab for measles and chickenpox in kids under 4 even though few parents opt for it over separate ouchies for the two diseases. More on this below.
The committee also tried to ban the birth-dose for hepatitis B despite decades of safe and effective use globally, but the decision was postponed.
Its 2-day public meeting scheduled for next week has been cancelled.
✓ Splitting the atom. It’s not rocket science. Anyone can do it. So what else might ACIP be planning with the new workgroup?
Well, one thing that seems to be brewing is to further split the MMR jab now that ACIP has banned MMRV for the youngest kids. How’s ‘bout requiring that separate shots be given for measles, mumps, and rubella? This came about because two of the nation’s now leading medical experts, the president and CDC’s acting director, both without science or medical experience, heard that the MMR is bad and should be broken up. We don’t know where the president heard this, but the acting director heard it from the president.
This is not trivial. Parents hearing this from government authorities could delay or forgo their kids’ measles vaccination.
© 2025 Henry A. Choy. All rights reserved.